11 September, 2026

During the 2025 California wildfires, some people weren’t simply watching one of the most devastating disasters in state history unfold, they were wagering on them. 

Traditionally associated with bets on sport, politics and crypto, prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are increasingly turning their attention to a new arena: weather and climate. 

A recent deal will allow Kalshi to use data from The Weather Channel to verify betting outcomes, while also bringing its prediction markets to the Weather Channel’s app which is used by more than 330 million people worldwide. According to Kalshi, weather and climate predictions are among its fastest growing categories, expanding by around 500% over the past year into a $1.1 billion market. Users can already bet on everything from Arctic sea ice levels to whether 2026 will be the UK’s hottest summer on record. 

However, this growing market presents a dilemma: is it okay to gamble on the future of our planet? Supporters argue that prediction markets aggregate information, improve forecasting and increase public engagement with climate science. One 2023 study even found that participation in climate prediction markets increased concern about climate change and shifted the views of some climate sceptics. We can see the sense in that. Given the obvious reality of our changing climate, the fact that every option is ultimately a variation on the theme of ‘bad things happening’ may help drive the message home. 

But there is also a darker side. When heatwaves, hurricanes and coral bleaching appear alongside bets on football matches and celebrity appearances, climate disasters risk becoming another form of monetised entertainment. Not just do people profit from catastrophe, there’s also a chance that reducing climate impacts to odds and payouts could distance us from both the events and the people experiencing them. 

These concerns become even more relevant as UK regulators such as the FCA consider the future of prediction markets. If current restrictions are lifted, climate betting could become part of a much broader debate about how we engage with the climate crisis in the UK. But one thing is certain: tackling climate change will require more than accurately predicting the future. It will require people to believe that the future can still be changed. 

By Charity Rymer