Our thinking

An outlook to COP30

31 October, 2025

COP30 in Belem, Brazil is fast approaching. The summit will test how far away we are from the ambitions of the Paris Agreement, how climate finance can be mobilised, and how clean energy can scale faster. Nature will also take centre stage, with Brazil eager to show that protecting ecosystems is integral to tackling the climate crisis. 

Yet big questions remain. Current pledges still fall short of keeping warming to 1.5°C, and the gap between ambition and action continues to widen. 

Climate finance will be a flashpoint, with heavy focus on the Baku-Belem Climate Finance Roadmap, which aims to mobilise finance for developing countries by 2035. Yet Bill Gates sparked debate this week, calling for a pivot in the climate change fight.  Although a big advocate for climate tech, now argues that resources must be directed to efforts aimed at preventing disease and hunger – a shift that could reshape what gets financed and why.  

The UK’s situation highlights the tension between short-term politics and long-term goals: pressure on the offshore wind budget threatens our 2030 clean energy targets but may help control rising energy bills. 

As host, Brazil will spotlight biodiversity. The Amazon and other ecosystems are vital to global climate stability, and the country is coordinating the largest-ever Indigenous participation at a COP, recognising them as the “Guardians of Biodiversity.” But expect backlash after Brazil’s state oil firm just received a licence to drill off the Amazon coast.   

Marking ten years since the Paris Agreement and five years from key 2030 milestones we can only ask whether COP30 could be a turning point, or another reminder of how far the world still has to go. 

By Bertie Bateman