Our thinking

Peak performance

6 December, 2024

Could the world’s biggest polluter be turning a corner? A new report from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) suggests that China’s greenhouse gas emissions may peak earlier than expected, fuelled by an unprecedented boom in clean energy and electric vehicles. A survey of climate experts found that 44% believe its CO2 emissions will peak in 2025, compared to its official target of 2030.  

This year, more than half of new cars sold in China were electric for three consecutive months. China’s thriving EV market demonstrates that demand for cleaner technology is accelerating, as affordable options put green transport within reach for the general public. Meanwhile, the country’s solar capacity dwarfs that of any other nation and there has been massive investment in batteries alongside this.  

China’s net-zero target remains set at 2060, some way behind the global 2050 benchmark.  Does the country’s progress demonstrate that steady advancement toward less ambitious but achievable goals could be more impactful than ambitious targets that risk becoming hollow promises? By focusing on achievable milestones – like scaling EVs and solar power – China is chipping away at emissions while keeping pace with economic development needs. 

While the news is undoubtedly good, caution is needed. China’s emissions plateau is also partly down to an economic slowdown, and a decline in heavy polluting industries because of reduced demand. And, as the CREA report notes, China is still expected to miss its carbon intensity reduction targets (essentially the amount of CO2 released for each unit of energy produced) for 2025 and 2030.  

So, while this shift offers hope, it’s a reminder of the complexities of balancing growth with climate action. But if it can sustain its momentum, China’s approach could set an important precedent for how large economies can pragmatically find the balance and shape the direction of the global transition.  

By Lucy Bell