Our thinking

The hidden power of the climate conscious voter

1 March, 2024

In a scramble to win votes ahead of the next general election both Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer have announced major U-turns in their climate commitments. But have systematic underestimates of support for climate action led both party leaders to make the wrong calculations?

A recent study in Nature Climate Change, surveying nearly 130,000 individuals across 125 countries, revealed a discrepancy between perceived and actual support for climate action. Respondents believed less than half their fellow citizens would be willing to contribute to tackling climate issues. However, the study found 89% of respondents believed they should help fight climate change, with over 80% of the UK respondents urging the government to intensify climate efforts. The study also identified a correlation between demand for increased political action and demand for specific climate policies such as a carbon tax or funding renewable energy research, suggesting strong climate-related policies could play a pivotal role in influencing voting behaviour.

So why do we have such little faith in our neighbours and why should the green vote not be overlooked? The authors believe the focus by the media and public discussion on the small number of climate sceptics is partly responsible. High media coverage of protests against controversial climate policies, such as expanding the ULEZ zone to Uxbridge and the European Commission’s sustainable Farm to Fork strategy can give outsize voice to what remains a minority view. This could in turn discourage governments from incorporating climate policies into their campaigns. However, humans are conditional operators, meaning we are more likely to contribute to a public good if we believe others contribute as well. Therefore, the hope is that as findings like these let the climate conscious cat out the bag, change will come.

Ultimately this study highlights the world’s willingness to fight climate change and governments should take note. There may be more votes in commitment to progress that they think.

By Nia Vines